HANDICAPPING THE DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES -- MAY 2019
Here’s how I see it:
The Democrats can count on the unwavering support of, say 35-40 percent of the electorate, comprising college-educated, mostly white, coastal liberals (women especially); people of color; Hispanics; LGBTQs and other minorities; youngsters and other reform-minded voters sick of the crazyness emanating from 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
Another third of the electorate are die-hard Trump voters, beyond the reach of the Democratic Party. These include the Evangelical Christian Right, who are faith-driven and impervious to reason and fact. Trump’s their man, who supports their convictions on abortion and dominionism; and nothing the Democrats say will change their allegiance to him. Same goes for the mostly high-school educated, white supremacist racists; and redneck, 2nd Amendment “from-my-cold-dead-hands” types concentrated in the South and rural center of the country. Any attempt to re-educate and convert core Trump supporters would be a waste of precious time and resources.
Where the Democrats have their work cut out for them is in capturing the remainder of the electorate: Obama-switched-to-Trump voters in 2016, disenchanted Republicans (especially among some farmers and blue-collar workers, suffering from Trump’s trade wars), persuadable undecideds and the politically apathetic/disengaged/discouraged. The ability to defeat Trump in 2020 will depend on the Democratic candidate’s appeal to this center/center-left remainder as well as keeping the faith with the Democratic base and turning out the vote.
Judging from her performance last night at the CNN Town Hall, Kamala Harris should be in contention on that score. She was articulate, intelligent, informed, authoritative, engaging, charming, confident, attractive, persuasive, purposeful, powerful. Her unusual combination of no-nonsense-prosecutor demeanor, folksy personal story-telling, and quick-to-laugh charm won plaudits from an appreciative audience. She’d be formidable debating Trump or Pence. As a next-generation, liberal, daughter of immigrants, woman of color, and a senator from California with a proven track record of accomplishment “For the People," she’s a good fit for the Democratic constituency, which, I believe, is ready for a generational shift and a woman president.
Uncle Joe and Bernie are neither of these and come from small states (although Biden is reclaiming his provenance as a Pennsylvanian). Biden’s frustrated comment during the 2008 presidential debates – “Maybe I’ve been around too long." — probably still applies, revealing his establishment alignment at a time when change is in the air. He’d be taking office at the age of 78, were he to be elected and seek re-election at the age of 82. Bernie’s a year older than Joe, but probably too far left to capture the battleground center-left. I suspect their present leads at the polls, based largely on familiarity, will evaporate as the newer faces emerge from the crowded field during the debates, and Democrats' yearning for a younger, woman president emerges.
As for other major, next-generation contenders, Mayor Pete is a worthy candidate, eloquent, intelligent, with good ideas, but I doubt even the liberal Democrats are ready for an all-male first family, as depicted on the cover of Timerecently. Beto is an eloquent idealist; but, given his central thrust on immigration, if nominated he would likely crash on the rocks with a frontal assault on Trump’s bastion, rather than flanking him with issues appealing to the center-left. Cory Booker’s loud and aggressive style seems unlikely to succeed in wooing that critical constituency. All three candidates would enrage and energize Trump’s social-issues-driven base, stimulating Republican voter turnout.
Consequently, I’ll wager Kamala will be on the ticket.
The question is #1 or #2? Elizabeth Warren is getting a lot of mileage out of her policy proposals. She shares many of Kamala’s politicking skills and appeal, with an extra dollop of passion. Perhaps too much. Is there a Harris/Warren ticket in the offing? It would have geographical balance in populous Democratic strongholds, ethnic diversity, unimpeachable progressive credentials, popular ideas, and think-on-their-feet eloquence. Is the majority of the electorate ready for an all-woman ticket? Why not? With only two exceptions, men have been proffering single-gender tickets since the formation of the republic and they’ve gotten us into a helluva fix. Why not give women a chance?