REPUBLICAN HARDBALL ON THE KAVANAUGH CONFIRMATION

Republicans play a masterful game of hardball. Got to hand it to them. The recent Kavanaugh FBI report is a case in point, in which not only was Congressional judgment managed, so too was public opinion.
When Flake forced the FBI to reopen the investigation into the allegations against Kavanaugh, Democrats were pleased, thinking the FBI would conduct a thorough investigation corroborating enough of the accusers’ allegations to derail Kavanaugh’s nomination.
A vain hope, as it turns out. FBI Director Wray was a schoolmate of Kavanaugh’s at Yale and Rosenstein collaborated closely with Kavanaugh on the Starr investigation of Bill Clinton. So it probably took no more than a whisper in Wray’s ear to set the parameters limiting the investigation (despite WH protestations to the contrary). The parameters were simple: find noevidence corroborating Dr. Ford’s or Deborah Ramirez’ accounts, so Republicans could endlessly repeat the line about “uncorroborated” accusations. Accordingly, the FBI interviewed the 3 witnesses Dr. Ford mentioned, all of whom had previously stated they did not witness the attempted rape – Judge, obviously not wanting to cop to being an accessory to a crime, and, unsurprisingly, the other two witnesses had no memory of that specific party among many 36 years ago. Therefore, they were safe interviewees meeting the parameters set for the investigation while offering the illusion of investigatory diligence. Lost in the kerfuffle of Lindsay Graham’s outburst in the Kavanaugh hearing was the corroboration in Kavanaugh’s diary placing him and three witnesses named by Dr. Ford at a party where beer would be available on July 1, 1982, within the timeframe specified in Dr. Ford’s testimony. That entry in itself does not prove Ford’s allegation of attempted rape, but does lend credibility to her account. The FBI studiously avoided interviewing many witnesses willing to offer testimony of Kavanaugh’s “staggering drunk” behavior, which would have provided credibility to the argument that he might have done it, but had no memory of having done so. To avoid such a conclusion, Kavanaugh pointedly denied ever blacking out but admitted becoming sleepy in the aftermath of a drinking binge. How to differentiate “blacking out” from “going to sleep”?  The FBI interviewed Ramirez but not the witnesses she offered to corroborate her story, thereby preserving the Republican “uncorroborated” narrative. They didn’t even bother with Julie Swetnick whose accusation of Kavanaugh attending a party where she was gang raped was too hot to handle.
“Uncorroborated” is the abracadabra opening the door for Republicans to straddle the fence: lugubriously proclaiming their sympathy for Dr. Ford, agreeing that she suffered the trauma of an attempted rape; but since her account is “uncorroborated,” they can then say, with a straight face, that there is no corroborating evidence Kavanaugh was the perpetrator. Ergo, in the words of Susan Collins clinging to the Republican narrative, “I will vote to confirm Judge Kavanaugh.”  
Trump helped the “uncorroborated” narrative along by abandoning his initial sympathies for Ford as “credible” then swinging into full attack mode at a rally, ridiculing Ford for not remembering many details of the event. It was a masterful comedic bit, eliciting roars of approval from his adoring audience who applauded the performance as much as its substance. He demonstrated his by-now legendary ability to shift the conversation with a performance sure to outrage the opposition, in this instance away from Kavanaugh’s alleged drunken behavior and untruthfulness, to Ford’s credibility and the “unfairness” with which Democrats treated Kavanaugh. In the process, Trump re-energized his base, playing the victimization card to heighten his followers’ anger, and, according to subsequent press reports, resolve to vote on November 6. The base was further stoked by Kavanaugh’s unprecedented interview on Fox News and Wall Street Journal Op-Ed. 
The trick of “hiding the ball” – classifying the FBI report made available only to Senators in a secure room, as Bush did in the runup to the Iraq War – gave the deciding votes, Flake and Collins, cover that the matter had been diligently investigated while concealing from the public the inadequacy of the investigation.
With previously undecided Collins and Flake "yes" votes offsetting Murkowski’s principled “no” vote*, thereby assuring confirmation with 50 Republican votes (and Pence casting the tie-breaking vote), Democratic Senator Manchin could vote “yes” to save his re-election prospects in Trump-leaning West Virginia without becoming the deciding vote in favor of Kavanaugh and pariah within the Democratic caucus. (Thoughtful Democrats should continue to support Manchin despite his inconsequential “yes” vote, figuring a blue-dog Democrat Senator is better than a Trump Republican.) Final vote 50:48.   
Looking at the bigger picture: in one fell swoop, l’affaireKavanaugh wiped out the penultimate vestiges of Constitutional “checks and balances” on Trump’s presidency. The feckless Republican-controlled Senate and House have been long gone as restraints on Trump. The limited scope of the investigation tells us the FBI and Justice Department have been compromised at the highest levels, ready to do Trump’s bidding – not surprising given the firing of Comey and other FBI brass regarded as disloyal to Trump and their replacement with loyal appointees. Kavanaugh’s imminent confirmation to the SCOTUS likely removes it as an effective check on presidential power, giving Republican loyalists on the court a 5:4 majority for the duration of the Trump presidency and beyond.
That leaves the Mueller investigation as the sole remaining restraint on the President. For months now, Trump has been laying the groundwork to discredit whatever Mueller finds, claiming it is tainted by partisanship. The press has been neutered in the eyes of Trump’s gullible supporters with allegations of “fake news” and “the enemy of the people” – so even if the Mueller report is damning, Trump may well escape any consequences, since neither Congress or DoJ have any inclination to pursue the matter and SCOTUS is now the lackey of the President. In short, the “checks and balances” provided in the Constitution have been effectively eroded and democracy is hanging by a thread.
With the re-energizing of the Trump base and the anticipated flood of Republican campaign contributions in the wake of the Kavanaugh affair, the outcome of the election remains uncertain. Should the Democrats falter in the November mid-terms we can anticipate continued undemocratic rule by a ruthless and determined President and Republican Party serving the interests of their wealthy benefactors while supported by only a minority of the electorate.
The last best hope of preserving democracy in America is the prospect of Democratic victories in the upcoming mid-term election giving Democrats control of the House, and, improbably, the Senate. Women are leading the charge for the Democrats, bless ‘em, and may they have fair weather and following seas in their campaign to rescue the country from its darker instincts.
David L. Smith 


   *Later withdrawn as a courtesy to be paired with Senator Daines (R-Montana) who, were he present would have voted ‘aye’ but he was absent attending his daughter’s wedding. Does not change the outcome: 50 “aye”, 48 “no.”