THROUGH A GLASS DARKLY

I think it fair to assume that the press and the president are locked in a death struggle: The press fighting to reaffirm its honor, credibility and stature as the guardians of democracy; Trump fighting for both the legitimacy of his election and his presidency. If there was malfeasance by Trump (either in conspiring with Russia or in obstructing justice), odds are the press will prevail because it has on its side the intelligence community (also fighting to restore credibility) and independent counsel Muller armed with subpoena powers. 

Ironically, history may judge Comey to be the pivotal figure of the Trump presidency, having tipped the election to Trump by publicly reviving the issue of Hillary Clinton’s emails, and having deposed Trump by leaking notes of his dinner with Trump, sparking the crucial decision by DAG Rosenstein to appoint Muller as special counsel.  

Given the consciousness of guilt exhibited by Trump and his associates, I suspect there was malfeasance and there will be a cover up (if there hasn’t been already). I expect Muller will uncover it and present a damning bill of particulars. Moreover, I wouldn’t be surprised if Trump Jr., Kushner, Manofort and Flynn are brought to trial, and if proven guilty, pardoned by Papa Trump, fanning the firestorm of protest and widespread calls for impeachment.  

One way or the other, the issue will probably be decided by Congress, which in turn will be under tremendous pressure by the press and public to impeach and convict. Much will depend on timing – whether the issue of impeachment is taken up before or after the 2018 elections. If before (unlikely), Trump could conceivably survive the judgment of a spineless Republican Congress unburdened by conscience (with few exceptions). If after the elections, chances are control of Congress could shift, given Trump’s low public approval and the continuing waterfall of adverse press reports, not only about l’affaire Russie and Trump’s uncouth, unhinged behavior, but also about Congressional Republicans’ heartless health-care bill and donor-serving tax cuts, energizing the Democratic opposition. That being the case, the odds of impeachment rise exponentially; although we should not underestimate the efficacy of Republicans’ underhanded tactics, including gerrymandering, voter suppression, Big-Money funded advertising blitzes and intervention in the electoral process by Mr. Trump’s running buddy, Vladimir Putin.  

My good friend and colleague, Steve Jonas presents a brilliant analysis of Trump’s intentions to discredit the press, the last bastion of resistance to a Trumpian, 21st Century fascist state. Unquestionably, Trump has effectively discredited the “destroy-Trump-liberal-mainstream press” (as Hannity calls it) in the eyes of the 35%-40% die-hard Trump base. Even so, that leaves 60%-65% of the electorate responsive the press. With that kind of support, and the longstanding tradition and Constitutional guarantee of a free press, I doubt Trump will succeed in realizing his aspirations to control the press, as Steve speculates, with an “Emergency Powers Act” prompted by an incident analogous to the Reichstag fire giving rise to Hitler’s “Enabling Act” of 1933 and subsequent fascist dictatorship. 

I would place the odds of Trump serving out his term at about 2:1 against, generally reaffirming a judgement I made in my Cassandra Chronicles Blog, last December 13, more than a month before Trump took office. (See “Will Trump Be Impeached?) Today, Ladbrokes puts the odds at “even” that he will serve out his first term. 

“A republic if you can keep it.” Ben Franklin.