TRUMP: IRRATIONAL OR CRAZY-LIKE-A-FOX?
Politico’s article, “James Mattis’ 33-Year Grudge Against Iran” makes the point that ever since the bombing of the Marine barracks in Lebanon by an Iran-trained suicide bomber, the Marines have been thirsting for revenge against Iran.
It leads me to wonder if Trump’s selection of General Mattis as his Secretary of Defense isn’t a shrewd negotiating ploy in connection with the Iran nuclear deal Trump is determined to renegotiate on better terms for the U.S. Is it Trump’s plan to say to Iran, “Give us better terms or I will unleash my “Mad Dog” Secretary of Defense who has been hankering for revenge against you for 33 years.”? To the selection of Mattis add Trump’s unpredictability and known a) antipathy for the Iran deal and b) tendency to lash out vengefully, plus his National Security Adviser’s rather trigger-happy disposition, and you present Iran with a credible threat of war to back up Trump’s demand for better terms. In effect, Trump could be speaking loudly and carrying a big stick.
It’s a posture reminiscent of Nixon’s “Madman theory” whereby he was content to let the Soviet Union believe he was irrational and volatile with the expectation that the Soviets, fearing an unpredictable American response, would be disinclined to provoke the U.S.
The question, both for the Iranians and for Americans, remains whether Trump is bluffing or stands ready to go to war with Iran if his demands aren’t met. At present, there is no appetite among ordinary Americans for another invasion of the Middle East, but all it would take is another (arguably) false flag operation like 9/11 for “the wolf to rise in the breast” to paraphrase Teddy Roosevelt again. In this case, the U.S. has tied its future to a demonstrably volatile president, whether irrational or crazy-like-a-fox remains to be seen. Interesting times indeed.