WILL TRUMP BE IMPEACHED?
So far Republicans have rolled over in the face of Trump’s outrageous flouting of conventional norms of ethical behavior. A few of his most ardent critics, like Mitt Romney, have been silenced by Trump’s canny tactic of dangling patronage before them, after considering which they can hardly revert to their prior harsh criticism. (After being informed he was no longer in the running for Secretary of State, Romney stated: “It was an honor to have been considered for Secretary of State of our great country. My discussions with President-elect Trump have been both enjoyable and enlightening.” That’s a fair journey traveled from “a phony, a fraud, unfit to be president and very, very not smart.”) After saying he would not defend Trump’s conduct before the election, Paul Ryan, in recent interviews, seems to be over the moon about Trump’s cabinet appointments, leaving the impression that there is no daylight between his views and those of the President-elect.
However, I see glimmers of potential light that could lead to Republican revulsion at Trump’s antics perhaps eventually blossoming into impeachment and conviction. Such an outcome would please not only all Democrats but also a great many “Not-Trump” Republicans who are itching to get back at him for his attacks on the Washington political establishment.
1 Trump’s cavalier dismissal of the CIA’s report linking Russia to the hacking and distribution of the DNC’s emails has stirred bipartisan support in Congress for an investigation. Mitch McConnell, who, for obvious political gain, refused to support the release of the report before the election, is now in favor of an investigation, revealing a break with the President-elect that could lead to even wider chasm between Trump and the Senate.
2 Trump is vulnerable to impeachment on constitutional grounds for violations of the emoluments clause prohibiting government officers from receiving gifts from foreign governments. As president-elect, he has already violated the prohibition by plumping for his own interests in telephone conversations with Argentina’s Macri and Erdogan in Turkey. The latter conversation has already come back to bite him as the Turkish government has arrested some of Trump’s business partners and are demanding the return of another now residing in the U.S. Trump will be faced with the prickly decision of whether to return the individual to Turkish authorities or risk his rights to profits from the Trump towers in Istanbul. It seems highly probable that foreign governments will seek to curry favor with Trump by offering sweet deals to his kids running the Trump enterprise (which Trump’s insensitivity and greed may prompt him to accept) exposing Trump to charges under the emoluments clause. There is speculation that other issues, like the Trump University fraud, could justify impeachment as well.
3 Trump’s tweet attacks on Boeing (over the 2 new Air Force 1’s) and Lockheed-Martin (over the cost of the F-35 program) has surely stirred up an active lobbying effort by the aerospace industry threatening to withdraw financial support from Senators and Congressmen if they do not curb Trump. Trump’s threat to tear up the Iran nuclear deal and take on China and Mexico on trade deals also jeopardizes export sales by not only American vendors, but U.S. Allies as well. Trump apparently does not understand the dependence of elected government officials on campaign contributions from commercial interests, the withdrawal of which jeopardizes their offices, making them receptive to the impeachment option.
4 There remains a residue of anti-Trump resentment just below the surface among not only the Republican contenders Trump trashed on his way to the nomination, but among religious and upright Republicans disgusted by his amoral behavior. Many House Republicans would find the prospect of a Pence presidency appealing, and would, therefore, vote to impeach. I’m certain Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Rand Paul, John McCain and Lindsey Graham would be happy to vote for conviction. Added to 48 Democrats, that brings to 53 the number of senators willing to impeach. Another 14 Republican senators (out of the remaining 47) would be needed to convict. Considering that Trump lost the popular vote by 2%, members of Congress on both sides of the aisle might consider their risks associated with voting Trump out of office to be acceptable, if not minimal.
5 Trump apparently thinks his popularity with his redneck, rust-belt, white base renders him bulletproof, encouraging him to flaunt conventional norms of ethical behavior, insult vast swathes of the population and challenge the established order in Washington, DC.. I believe one’s success in life depends largely on the forbearance of one’s enemies. In Trump’s case, he has made so many enemies, both in Washington and elsewhere, that he could join the numerous other heads of state presently being prosecuted for corruption. Within the past 3 weeks, Ladbrokes the bookmaker slashed the odds on the president-elect leaving early due to being impeached or having to resign.The bookies opened the market at 3-1, before cutting it to 5-2 and again down to 6-4 presently, after a massive flurry of bets that Trump wouldn’t finish the term.
However, as the November 14, 2016 article in Vanity Fair points out, be careful what you wish for:
To see Trump disappear and leave things to Mike Pence, a lockstep party man with all of Trump’s traditional rightist views and none of Trump’s eccentricities or heresies, would be a dream-come-true for Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell. Pence would be happy to sign all the bills that hit his desk and reverse course on foreign policy, trade, and, to some extent, immigration. Would impeachment do anything worthwhile for Trump’s opponents on the left? To the extent that it would distract Republicans from governance and block their agenda, yes. But soon all you would have would be President Pence and a return to the Bush years. Gone would be any suggestions of preserving parts of Obamacare or sparing entitlements, and an interventionist foreign policy (assuming Trump had avoided it) would return with a roar. So the choices on impeachment come down to brands of crazy, Trump-style or Pence-style. Is the craziest president the one with minimal impulse control or the one who still believes Americans are keen on regime change abroad and privatized Social Security? We’d have to be very unlucky to learn the answer.
And so it goes. Interesting times.
David L. Smith
Author: The Predicament
www.the-predicament.com
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