WILL TRUMP SERVE OUT HIS TERM IN OFFICE?

“Will This Man Take Down Donald Trump?” asked Politico Magazine on February 3, 2017. The man in question is Eric Schneiderman, New York’s attorney general who has “emerged as perhaps the lefty media’s favorite lawyer,” tangling with major corporate interests and Mr. Trump himself. “Schneiderman is one of the names that arises when it comes to the great liberal dream: finding something in Trump’s web of conflicts that prohibits him from serving out the remainder of his term,” the article continues.

Mr. Schneiderman won’t be lacking for company in taking down President Trump.As we have learned over the course of the presidential campaign and Mr. Trump’s first two weeks in office, he has managed to alienate:

·      Republican presidential contenders by belittling them

·      Women generally with his “locker room talk,” and pro-choice women specifically with his newfound anti-abortion creed and belief in punishment for women who abort

·      All living US presidents on his inaugural podium by knocking them in his inaugural address

·      Mexicans, with the Wall, character smears (“murderers and rapists”) and border tax

·      The Chinese with Taiwan and tough talk on trade

·      Muslims, with the ban and belligerence toward Iran and Muslims generally

·      FHA mortgagors, by nullifying Obama’s reduction in their FHA mortgage insurance rates 

·      Democrats, with unsuitable cabinet appointments, conflicts of interest, and lies about 3-5 million illegal votes

·      Teachers, by nominating know-nothing billionaire donor Betsy DeVoss to be Secretary of Education

·      The Press, by accusing mainstream media of a lack of journalistic integrity, of propagating “fake news,” and by Bannon’s telling them to “shut up"

·      Native Americans and environmental activists with the Keystone pipeline

·      Australia over immigrant detainees

·      Israel over new settlements

·      Jews over failure to mention them in Holocaust commemoration proclamation

·      Iraq by threatening to “take their oil" and banning them from entering the US

·      Russia over Crimea and Eastern Ukraine

·      Iran by putting the country “on notice,” and imposing sanctions

·      The military by proclaiming “success” for a mission (casually approved over dinner) in which “everything went wrong”: 1KIA, 4WIA, civilians including 8-year-old girl killed

·      The Judiciary by denigrating judges hearing Washington state’s challenge to his travel ban

·      The Koch brothers by worrying them with his “autocratic tendencies”

·      Congressional Republicans by jeopardizing their support from the Koch brothers disenchanted with Trump

In addition to the adversaries above listed, I should add federal civil servants he has also angered within the CIA, the State Department, the Environmental Protection Agency, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, the Justice Department and now, the Judiciary (under attack by Trump in the Travel Ban case), who are opposed to his policies and methods, and who, therefore, will work to undermine the administration from within through leaks and court challenges (as we are already seeing), and other ways I can’t begin to imagine.  

I expect Trump’s paranoia and vindictiveness will only aggravate the situation, as he vainly attempts to purge the administration of dissidents, only to come up against the near-impossibility of firing civil servants and no chance at all of firing judges who disagree with him. In addition, he is inciting opposition from attorneys general in various states who have, so far successfully, gone to court to thwart the Trump administration’s immigration directive and stand ready to sue him personally for constitutional violations and malfeasance in his business dealings. This internal conflict within the administration, the judiciary, and with the states will play into the hands of his adversaries, especially in Congress and within the press.

Bottom line: Trump’s opponents are legion, and bound to become more numerous as Trump rides roughshod over the interests and sensibilities of additional constituencies.  The question is: Will all those he has alienated bend to his will or break him?

Kellyann Conway notwithstanding, facts are facts, and based on my 33 years as an economic, financial and political prognosticator and chronicler (see www.davidlsmith.com, www.cyclical-investing.com ) I conclude that facts point in the direction of Trump being removed from office before his term expires simply because a) of the growing number of powerful detractors and enemies he is making along the way and b) his narcissistic overestimation of his own power, tenuously dependent on the size, power and perseverance of an increasingly disenchanted minority base (like @Trump_Regrets) and c) corresponding underestimation of the power, ruthlessness and resolve of his adversaries. What seals the deal is Trump’s seeming insensitivity to the ill-will he has actively generated over the past year-and-a-half. Why is he so insensitive?

Trump has lived a charmed life in the world of commercial dealmaking, experiencing considerable success in having his own way through sheer force of personality, wealth and adroit manipulation of the media. He parlayed these attributes admirably to achieve the presidency, but now finds himself in the position of the Robert Redford character in “The Candidate,” who, upon achieving electoral victory then ends the movie by asking “What do we do now?”. 

Trump’s success in bending people to his will in business, seems to have imbued him with a sense of invincibility and the notion that he can similarly bend players on the national and world stage. I suspect he will soon learn that what worked in the limited sphere of commerce will not work in the broader political arena.

Trump has demonstrated time and again a rather tenuous connection to reality, living in a world of "alternate facts” (an Orwellian phrase that will live in infamy).  I don’t think there has ever been a president with such obvious psychological flaws so flagrantly on display. As a candidate he could indulge his fantasies, which ominously resonated with those of a gullible minority of the electorate. However, as president, Trump and his fantasies are now on a collision course with reality, as the recent protest demonstrations and legal challenges to his immigration ban illustrate. Obdurate and vindictive in the face of mounting resistance and a growing list of challenges, Trump will surely experience mounting and, I surmise, terminal opposition from an ever-expanding list of enemies.  

Whether those enemies have a workable plan for what happens next, is an open question. Assuming Pence does not go the way of Spiro Agnew, we should be prepared for a Pence administration, characterized by resolute advocacy of evangelical Christian social conservatism, a foreign policy consonant with the demands of the military-industrial complex, and a reprise of the Republican establishment’s misbegotten Reaganomics policies on the domestic front, exacerbating inequality of wealth, bolstering corporate power and heightening the likelihood of another economic and financial crisis a la 2008. That’s as far as my crystal ball illumines about the present course of events.

What can ordinary citizens do to keep Trump/Pence from derailing the country? Object, protest and propose constructive alternative solutions in social media; petition; post a blog (forward this one to your contacts); comment on OP-Ed pieces; write a book; give speeches; call in to talk radio; march; write/call your congressperson; show up at his/her town hall meetings and raise hell; organize in support of alternative candidates for 2018 and 2020; contribute to the ACLU and other organizations promoting better courses of action.