THE STOCK MARKET IS CRASHING

Is this the beginning of the end for Trump and Republican control of the government?

Last December I began a series titled THE UPSIDE OF THE DOWNSIDE, in which I predicted a stock market crash signaling an impending great depression needed to prompt the political backlash that would repudiate the oligarchy, rebuild the middle class, restore democracy, reform and rebalance the government, and reconstruct the economy to meet the necessities of the new technological era. To all appearances, the stock market is exhibiting the classical “double top” formation, with resistance confirmed twice and a breakdown in three-times-confirmed support at around 42,000, and the 7-month trendline at around 43,000, presaging a major bear market, in turn the forerunner of a serious economic contraction. Such an event would be in keeping with the beginning of Phase II of the long-term, 3-phase Megacycle I revealed in the series. On March 11, 2025, the Dow closed at 41,433.48.

Substack analytics says only half my subscribers opened their e-mails announcing each post in the series. So I am issuing this Notice to Subscribers, urging the other half to get up to speed by reading Parts I through IIIC without which it’s virtually impossible to understand the “great sweep of history” we are now caught up in, or to visualize the bright future that awaits us on the other side of this horrible episode we must, unfortunately, endure.

Part I advanced the basic premise of “THE UPSIDE OF THE DOWNSIDE” series (Dec. 7, 2024):

The Downside: We are facing economic and financial turmoil aggravated by a destructive and despotic second Trump administration bent on revenge against political opponents, rewarding the donor class with added power and wealth, “deconstructing” the federal government, and reducing the wellbeing of the rest.

The Upside: “Hard times” will trigger a political backlash, empowering the opposition to enact a new political agenda necessary to repudiate the oligarchy, rebuild the middle class, restore democracy, reform and rebalance the government, and reconstruct the economy to meet the needs of the new technological era.

Part II introduced the concept of “Megacycles,” repeating episodes of economic transformation, “revolutions” triggered by new technology unfolding in three phases (Dec. 10, 2024):

Phase I: Exponential, technology-driven economic growth leads to a significant upward redistribution of new wealth, resulting in an excessive accumulation of debt, euphoric over-investment in new technology, bubbles in financial and housing markets, and radical economic, social, and political changes throughout society.

Phase II: The bubbles burst, causing financial and economic turmoil, “creative destruction,” political backlash, and, so far, war during three complete Megacycles. The crashing stock market beginning in February 2025 could very well be the opening bell announcing the beginning of this traumatic episode.

Phase III: An era of peace and sustained economic and financial progress adapted to the new technology.

Parts IIIA and B: Delved more deeply into the recurring preconditions in Phase I creating the turmoil of Phase II, demonstrating the inevitable recurrence of these “hard times.”

Part IIIC discusses the timing and severe economic implications of Phase II of the current Artificial Intelligence Megacycle. This section outlines the warning signs. now in place, setting the stage for the calamities to follow in Phase II.

I urged subscribers to “Heed the warning signs and react promptly when the stock market’s major indices start breaking down below rising trendlines of support. A stock market crash typically leads the economic/financial crunch by about 6 months and never fails to plunge the economy into the abyss. The warning signs of the approaching danger associated with the present Artificial Intelligence Megacycle must be taken seriously. None of the three technologically induced Megacycles during the past two centuries has failed to produce a tumultuous second phase with a stock market crash, credit crunch, major economic contraction, and war. It is a rite of passage from one technological era to the next deeply embedded in the collective psyche of humankind. Only a financial/economic cataclysm will produce the kind of massive swing in public opinion to provide the opposition with the mandate necessary to enact the radical reforms needed to repudiate the oligarchy, rebuild the middle class, restore democracy, reform and rebalance the government, and reconstruct the economy to meet the necessities of the new technological era.” I might add: Once the MAGA constituency feels the devastating effects of the economic meltdown and the administration’s policies through which the social safety net is sacrificed on the altar of tax cuts for billionaire donors, they will join the opposition. So be prepared to welcome them kindly without “I told you so’s.”

Part IV and beyond: I’m in the process of writing the UPSIDE narrative of this series, in which I outline a new political process through which the currently evolving resistance and opposition can organize itself into a powerful, coherent movement to regain power in service of the people and reverse the legislated upward distribution of wealth and income initiated during the Reagan administration and subsequently intensified by the Bush II and Trump administrations. These parts will include sound, common-sense policy prescriptions around which the renewed Democratic Party can productively unite to achieve these objectives. Stay tuned and pass it on.

AS THE CHART ABOVE SHOWS, A TECHNICAL STOCK MARKET BREAKDOWN HAS OCCURRED, SO BRACE YOURSELVES AND TAKE THE MEASURES NECESSARY TO PROTECT YOUR PERSON, FAMILY, WEALTH AND INCOME FROM THE HARDSHIPS THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION AND THE IMMUTABLE LAWS OF ECONOMICS WILL UNLEASH IN THE COMING YEARS. JOIN OTHERS IN MUTUAL SUPPORT AND OPPOSITION TO THE PREDATIONS OF A MALIGN AND SELF-SERVING ADMINISTRATION.

MY OBJECTIVE IS TO PROVIDE THE MOST VALUABLE INFORMATION YOU CAN USE AND THE MOST EXPENSIVE ADVICE TO IGNORE. IF YOU AGREE, PASS IT ON.